To properly understand forecasts of future events, we have to remember that we're always learning more about them
Thanks for laying this out. I have seen this objection made before, but hadn't yet seen detailed discussion of good ways to model uncertain cumulative risks.
Forecasting war is different to forecasting a coin flip
Thanks for laying this out. I have seen this objection made before, but hadn't yet seen detailed discussion of good ways to model uncertain cumulative risks.